Isaiah LikelyorTyler Higbee?
Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Lean Tyler Higbee
Tyler Higbee outscores Isaiah Likely in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Isaiah Likely comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Tyler Higbee, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Isaiah Likely projects 0.6 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Isaiah Likely has the better matchup against the Arizona Cardinals (31% more than average to TEs); Tyler Higbee faces the Philadelphia Eagles (45% fewer than average to TEs). Tyler Higbee still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.0
- Median
- 5.3
- Ceiling
- 15.2
- Big game (15+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 5):
- 48%
- Floor
- 1.6
- Median
- 5.3
- Ceiling
- 12.5
- Big game (15+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 5):
- 47%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Isaiah LikelyTE, NYG, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Tyler HigbeeTE, LAR, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.9 | 6.3 |
| PPR projection | 8.7 | 7.8 |
| Standard projection | 5.1 | 4.9 |
| Rank this week | TE16 | TE18 |
| Matchup | vs ARI | at PHI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.6 | 8.2 |
| Last season per game | 4.0 | 5.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 84% | 71% |
| Trade value | — | — |