AJ DillonorLan Larison?
Week 9 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean AJ Dillon
AJ Dillon outscores Lan Larison in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Lan Larison comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean AJ Dillon, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. AJ Dillon projects 0.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. Lan Larison has the better matchup against the Green Bay Packers (6% more than average to RBs); AJ Dillon faces the Denver Broncos (6% fewer than average to RBs). AJ Dillon still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Lan Larison is the pick at 58%; in Standard leagues, AJ Dillon wins 60%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.4
- Median
- 1.1
- Ceiling
- 2.3
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- >99%
- Floor
- 0.4
- Median
- 1.1
- Ceiling
- 2.2
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- >99%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | AJ DillonRB, CAR, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET | Lan LarisonRB, NE, Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| PPR projection | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Standard projection | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Rank this week | RB64 | RB66 |
| Matchup | vs DEN | vs GB |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Last season per game | 1.3 | — |
| Snap share, last game | 15% | 8% |
| Trade value | — | — |