AJ DillonorTyler Goodson?
Week 9 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Tyler Goodson
Tyler Goodson outscores AJ Dillon in 58% of simulations.
AJ Dillon still comes out ahead in the other 42%, so Tyler Goodson is the better bet, not a sure thing. Tyler Goodson projects 0.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. Tyler Goodson has the better matchup against the Indianapolis Colts (3% more than average to RBs); AJ Dillon faces the Denver Broncos (6% fewer than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.4
- Median
- 1.1
- Ceiling
- 2.3
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- >99%
- Floor
- 0.5
- Median
- 1.4
- Ceiling
- 3.2
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 99%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | AJ DillonRB, CAR, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET | Tyler GoodsonRB, DAL, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| PPR projection | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Standard projection | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Rank this week | RB64 | RB62 |
| Matchup | vs DEN | at IND |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 1.4 | 2.6 |
| Last season per game | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 15% | 27% |
| Trade value | — | — |