Cam WardorKyler Murray?
Week 5 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Kyler Murray
Kyler Murray outscores Cam Ward in 64% of simulations.
Cam Ward still comes out ahead in the other 36%, so Kyler Murray is the better bet, not a sure thing. Kyler Murray projects 1.9 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. The matchups don't separate them: Kyler Murray faces the New Orleans Saints (9% fewer than average to QBs), Cam Ward faces the Houston Texans (9% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.9
- Median
- 10.9
- Ceiling
- 18.7
- Big game (25+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 12):
- 59%
- Floor
- 8.7
- Median
- 13.2
- Ceiling
- 18.9
- Big game (25+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 12):
- 38%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Cam WardQB, TEN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Kyler MurrayQB, MIN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 11.7 | 13.6 |
| PPR projection | 11.7 | 13.6 |
| Standard projection | 11.7 | 13.6 |
| Rank this week | QB24 | QB21 |
| Matchup | vs HOU | at NO |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 14.2 | 7.2 |
| Last season per game | 11.0 | 15.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |