Dare OgunbowaleorKaleb Johnson?
Week 9 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Kaleb Johnson
Kaleb Johnson outscores Dare Ogunbowale in 55% of simulations.
Dare Ogunbowale still comes out ahead in the other 45%, so Kaleb Johnson is the better bet, not a sure thing. Both project 1.1 half-PPR points in Week 9. Dare Ogunbowale has the better matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers (3% fewer than average to RBs); Kaleb Johnson faces the New England Patriots (16% fewer than average to RBs). Kaleb Johnson still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Kaleb Johnson wins 63%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.1
- Median
- 0.6
- Ceiling
- 2.7
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 99%
- Floor
- 0.2
- Median
- 0.9
- Ceiling
- 2.3
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- >99%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Dare OgunbowaleRB, HOU, Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 p.m. ET | Kaleb JohnsonRB, GB, Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| PPR projection | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Standard projection | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Rank this week | RB67 | RB68 |
| Matchup | at LAC | at NE |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 0.0 | 1.7 |
| Last season per game | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 0% | 5% |
| Trade value | — | — |