Isaiah DavisorSeth McGowan?
Week 9 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Seth McGowan
Seth McGowan outscores Isaiah Davis in 63% of simulations.
Isaiah Davis still comes out ahead in the other 37%, so Seth McGowan is the better bet, not a sure thing. Seth McGowan projects 0.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. Seth McGowan has the better matchup against the Dallas Cowboys (17% more than average to RBs); Isaiah Davis faces the Kansas City Chiefs (13% fewer than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.2
- Median
- 1.8
- Ceiling
- 6.3
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 89%
- Floor
- 0.9
- Median
- 2.7
- Ceiling
- 6.1
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 89%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Isaiah DavisRB, NYJ, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET | Seth McGowanRB, IND, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 2.7 | 3.2 |
| PPR projection | 3.2 | 3.4 |
| Standard projection | 2.3 | 2.9 |
| Rank this week | RB54 | RB53 |
| Matchup | at KC | vs DAL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 2.0 | 2.4 |
| Last season per game | 3.8 | — |
| Snap share, last game | 17% | 25% |
| Trade value | — | — |