Mark AndrewsorZach Ertz?
Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Lean Zach Ertz
Zach Ertz outscores Mark Andrews in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Mark Andrews comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Zach Ertz, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Mark Andrews projects 0.2 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. The matchups don't separate them: Zach Ertz faces the Los Angeles Rams (14% fewer than average to TEs), Mark Andrews faces the Tennessee Titans (8% fewer than average to TEs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.0
- Median
- 4.6
- Ceiling
- 13.1
- Big game (15+):
- 7%
- Dud (under 5):
- 54%
- Floor
- 1.7
- Median
- 4.9
- Ceiling
- 10.8
- Big game (15+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 5):
- 51%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Mark AndrewsTE, BAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Zach ErtzTE, PHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 5.9 | 5.7 |
| PPR projection | 7.6 | 7.1 |
| Standard projection | 4.2 | 4.3 |
| Rank this week | TE24 | TE26 |
| Matchup | vs TEN | vs LAR |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 6.2 | 1.4 |
| Last season per game | 6.3 | 7.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 52% | 38% |
| Trade value | — | — |