Cedric TillmanorMarvin Mims Jr.?
Week 5 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Cedric Tillman
Cedric Tillman outscores Marvin Mims Jr. in 50% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Marvin Mims Jr. comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean Cedric Tillman, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Marvin Mims Jr. projects 0.1 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Marvin Mims Jr. has the better matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers (6% fewer than average to WRs); Cedric Tillman faces the Minnesota Vikings (18% fewer than average to WRs). Cedric Tillman still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.7
- Median
- 2.9
- Ceiling
- 7.9
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 81%
- Floor
- 0.6
- Median
- 2.8
- Ceiling
- 8.1
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 81%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Cedric TillmanWR, NO, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Marvin Mims Jr.WR, DEN, Sun, Oct 11, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 3.7 | 3.8 |
| PPR projection | 4.5 | 4.7 |
| Standard projection | 2.9 | 2.9 |
| Rank this week | WR77 | WR76 |
| Matchup | vs MIN | at LAC |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | — | 0.8 |
| Last season per game | 4.1 | 5.1 |
| Snap share, last game | — | 27% |
| Trade value | — | — |