Charlie JonesorKevin Coleman Jr.?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Kevin Coleman Jr.
Kevin Coleman Jr. outscores Charlie Jones in 59% of simulations.
Charlie Jones still comes out ahead in the other 41%, so Kevin Coleman Jr. is the better bet, not a sure thing. Both project 0.4 half-PPR points in Week 4. Charlie Jones has the better matchup against the Arizona Cardinals (6% more than average to WRs); Kevin Coleman Jr. faces the Minnesota Vikings (14% fewer than average to WRs). Kevin Coleman Jr. still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Kevin Coleman Jr. wins 70%; in Standard leagues, Charlie Jones is the pick at 74%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.0
- Median
- 0.2
- Ceiling
- 1.0
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- >99%
- Floor
- 0.1
- Median
- 0.4
- Ceiling
- 0.7
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- >99%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Charlie JonesWR, NYG, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Kevin Coleman Jr.WR, MIA, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| PPR projection | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Standard projection | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Rank this week | WR150 | WR151 |
| Matchup | vs ARI | at MIN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | — | 0.4 |
| Last season per game | 0.4 | — |
| Snap share, last game | — | 62% |
| Trade value | — | — |