Chris BrooksorDare Ogunbowale?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Chris Brooks
Chris Brooks outscores Dare Ogunbowale in 57% of simulations.
Dare Ogunbowale still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so Chris Brooks is the better bet, not a sure thing. Chris Brooks projects 0.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Dare Ogunbowale has the better matchup against the Dallas Cowboys (16% more than average to RBs); Chris Brooks faces the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6% fewer than average to RBs). Chris Brooks still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.2
- Median
- 1.3
- Ceiling
- 3.7
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 99%
- Floor
- 0.1
- Median
- 0.9
- Ceiling
- 3.6
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 97%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Chris BrooksRB, GB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Dare OgunbowaleRB, HOU, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| PPR projection | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| Standard projection | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Rank this week | RB76 | RB77 |
| Matchup | at TB | vs DAL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 2.3 | — |
| Last season per game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 41% | — |
| Trade value | — | — |