Dare OgunbowaleorDJ Giddens?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start DJ Giddens
DJ Giddens outscores Dare Ogunbowale in 65% of simulations.
Dare Ogunbowale still comes out ahead in the other 35%, so DJ Giddens is the better bet, not a sure thing. DJ Giddens projects 0.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Dare Ogunbowale has the better matchup against the Dallas Cowboys (16% more than average to RBs); DJ Giddens faces the Washington Commanders (4% more than average to RBs). DJ Giddens still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, DJ Giddens wins 59%; in Standard leagues, DJ Giddens wins 72%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.1
- Median
- 0.9
- Ceiling
- 3.6
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 97%
- Floor
- 0.5
- Median
- 1.6
- Ceiling
- 3.9
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 98%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Dare OgunbowaleRB, HOU, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | DJ GiddensRB, IND, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| PPR projection | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Standard projection | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| Rank this week | RB77 | RB75 |
| Matchup | vs DAL | at WAS |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | — | — |
| Last season per game | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Snap share, last game | — | — |
| Trade value | — | — |