Dare OgunbowaleorWill Shipley?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Will Shipley
Will Shipley outscores Dare Ogunbowale in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Dare Ogunbowale comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Will Shipley, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Dare Ogunbowale projects 0.1 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Dare Ogunbowale has the better matchup against the Dallas Cowboys (16% more than average to RBs); Will Shipley faces the Los Angeles Rams (13% fewer than average to RBs). Will Shipley still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.1
- Median
- 0.9
- Ceiling
- 3.6
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 97%
- Floor
- 0.3
- Median
- 1.1
- Ceiling
- 3.0
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 99%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Dare OgunbowaleRB, HOU, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Will ShipleyRB, PHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| PPR projection | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Standard projection | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Rank this week | RB77 | RB79 |
| Matchup | vs DAL | vs LAR |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | — | 2.4 |
| Last season per game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Snap share, last game | — | 26% |
| Trade value | — | — |