Davis MillsorMac Jones?
Week 10 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Mac Jones
Mac Jones outscores Davis Mills in 59% of simulations.
Davis Mills still comes out ahead in the other 41%, so Mac Jones is the better bet, not a sure thing. Mac Jones projects 0.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Mac Jones has the better matchup against the Dallas Cowboys (29% more than average to QBs); Davis Mills faces the Cleveland Browns (16% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.1
- Median
- 0.3
- Ceiling
- 0.8
- Big game (25+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 12):
- >99%
- Floor
- 0.1
- Median
- 0.4
- Ceiling
- 1.0
- Big game (25+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 12):
- >99%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Davis MillsQB, HOU, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Mac JonesQB, SF, Sun, Nov 15, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| PPR projection | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Standard projection | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Rank this week | QB35 | QB29 |
| Matchup | at CLE | at DAL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 0.1 | -0.3 |
| Last season per game | 11.4 | 11.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 11% | 8% |
| Trade value | — | — |