Drew LockorGardner Minshew?
Week 9 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Gardner Minshew
Gardner Minshew outscores Drew Lock in 95% of simulations.
Drew Lock comes out ahead in the other 5%. Gardner Minshew projects 1.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. Drew Lock has the better matchup against the Arizona Cardinals (18% more than average to QBs); Gardner Minshew faces the Seattle Seahawks (24% fewer than average to QBs). Gardner Minshew still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.5
- Median
- 0.9
- Ceiling
- 1.6
- Big game (25+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 12):
- >99%
- Floor
- 1.5
- Median
- 2.4
- Ceiling
- 3.7
- Big game (25+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 12):
- >99%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Drew LockQB, SEA, Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 p.m. ET | Gardner MinshewQB, ARI, Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 1.0 | 2.5 |
| PPR projection | 1.0 | 2.5 |
| Standard projection | 1.0 | 2.5 |
| Rank this week | QB26 | QB25 |
| Matchup | vs ARI | at SEA |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 17.1 | 19.5 |
| Last season per game | 0.0 | -0.1 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 42% |
| Trade value | — | — |