Deshaun WatsonorMarcus Mariota?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Deshaun Watson
Deshaun Watson outscores Marcus Mariota in 99% of simulations.
Marcus Mariota comes out ahead in the other 1%. Deshaun Watson projects 18.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Deshaun Watson faces the Pittsburgh Steelers (3% more than average to QBs), Marcus Mariota faces the Indianapolis Colts (10% more than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 10.7
- Median
- 17.9
- Ceiling
- 27.7
- Big game (25+):
- 16%
- Dud (under 12):
- 16%
- Floor
- 0.3
- Median
- 0.6
- Ceiling
- 1.2
- Big game (25+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 12):
- >99%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Deshaun WatsonQB, CLE, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 p.m. ET | Marcus MariotaQB, WAS, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 18.7 | 0.7 |
| PPR projection | 18.7 | 0.7 |
| Standard projection | 18.7 | 0.7 |
| Rank this week | QB7 | QB34 |
| Matchup | vs PIT | vs IND |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 18.0 | 14.6 |
| Last season per game | — | 12.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 99% | 100% |
| Trade value | 7 | — |