Justin HerbertorKirk Cousins?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Justin Herbert
Justin Herbert outscores Kirk Cousins in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Kirk Cousins comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Justin Herbert, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Justin Herbert projects 0.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Justin Herbert faces the Seattle Seahawks (18% fewer than average to QBs), Kirk Cousins faces the Kansas City Chiefs (19% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 6.6
- Median
- 12.4
- Ceiling
- 20.6
- Big game (25+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 12):
- 47%
- Floor
- 5.2
- Median
- 11.6
- Ceiling
- 21.8
- Big game (25+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 12):
- 53%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Justin HerbertQB, LAC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | Kirk CousinsQB, LV, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 13.2 | 12.8 |
| PPR projection | 13.2 | 12.8 |
| Standard projection | 13.2 | 12.8 |
| Rank this week | QB21 | QB24 |
| Matchup | at SEA | vs KC |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.3 | 18.7 |
| Last season per game | 17.9 | 10.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |