Aaron RodgersorJ.J. McCarthy?
Week 10 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers outscores J.J. McCarthy in 57% of simulations.
J.J. McCarthy still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so Aaron Rodgers is the better bet, not a sure thing. Aaron Rodgers projects 1.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. J.J. McCarthy has the better matchup against the Washington Commanders (18% more than average to QBs); Aaron Rodgers faces the Cincinnati Bengals (9% more than average to QBs). Aaron Rodgers still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.2
- Median
- 13.8
- Ceiling
- 23.4
- Big game (25+):
- 8%
- Dud (under 12):
- 39%
- Floor
- 5.4
- Median
- 12.1
- Ceiling
- 22.6
- Big game (25+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 12):
- 50%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Aaron RodgersQB, PIT, Sun, Nov 15, 8:20 p.m. ET | J.J. McCarthyQB, NYG, Thu, Nov 12, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 14.8 | 13.2 |
| PPR projection | 14.9 | 13.2 |
| Standard projection | 14.8 | 13.2 |
| Rank this week | QB14 | QB18 |
| Matchup | at CIN | vs WAS |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 14.7 | 8.5 |
| Last season per game | 14.2 | 12.5 |
| Snap share, last game | 95% | 76% |
| Trade value | — | — |