J.J. McCarthyorJustin Herbert?
Week 9 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Justin Herbert
Justin Herbert outscores J.J. McCarthy in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: J.J. McCarthy comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Justin Herbert, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. J.J. McCarthy projects 0.4 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. J.J. McCarthy has the better matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles (2% more than average to QBs); Justin Herbert faces the Houston Texans (7% fewer than average to QBs). Justin Herbert still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.3
- Median
- 11.7
- Ceiling
- 21.8
- Big game (25+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 12):
- 51%
- Floor
- 6.3
- Median
- 11.7
- Ceiling
- 19.4
- Big game (25+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 12):
- 52%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | J.J. McCarthyQB, NYG, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET | Justin HerbertQB, LAC, Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.8 | 12.4 |
| PPR projection | 12.8 | 12.4 |
| Standard projection | 12.8 | 12.4 |
| Rank this week | QB22 | QB24 |
| Matchup | at PHI | vs HOU |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 8.9 | 10.0 |
| Last season per game | 12.5 | 17.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 92% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |