Geno SmithorJustin Herbert?
Week 10 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Justin Herbert
Justin Herbert outscores Geno Smith in 57% of simulations.
Geno Smith still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so Justin Herbert is the better bet, not a sure thing. Justin Herbert projects 1.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Justin Herbert has the better matchup against the Baltimore Ravens (8% more than average to QBs); Geno Smith faces the Buffalo Bills (11% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.1
- Median
- 11.3
- Ceiling
- 21.2
- Big game (25+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 12):
- 54%
- Floor
- 6.9
- Median
- 12.8
- Ceiling
- 21.1
- Big game (25+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 12):
- 44%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Geno SmithQB, NYJ, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Justin HerbertQB, LAC, Mon, Nov 16, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.4 | 13.5 |
| PPR projection | 12.4 | 13.5 |
| Standard projection | 12.4 | 13.5 |
| Rank this week | QB21 | QB17 |
| Matchup | vs BUF | at BAL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 14.5 | 10.1 |
| Last season per game | 11.6 | 17.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 79% |
| Trade value | — | — |