Deshaun WatsonorGeno Smith?
Week 7 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Deshaun Watson
Deshaun Watson outscores Geno Smith in 56% of simulations.
Geno Smith still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Deshaun Watson is the better bet, not a sure thing. Deshaun Watson projects 1.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 7. The matchups don't separate them: Deshaun Watson faces the Tennessee Titans (5% more than average to QBs), Geno Smith faces the Miami Dolphins (12% more than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 8.2
- Median
- 13.7
- Ceiling
- 21.4
- Big game (25+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 12):
- 37%
- Floor
- 5.4
- Median
- 12.2
- Ceiling
- 23.2
- Big game (25+):
- 7%
- Dud (under 12):
- 49%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Deshaun WatsonQB, CLE, Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 p.m. ET | Geno SmithQB, NYJ, Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 14.4 | 13.4 |
| PPR projection | 14.4 | 13.4 |
| Standard projection | 14.4 | 13.4 |
| Rank this week | QB16 | QB19 |
| Matchup | at TEN | vs MIA |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 14.8 | 13.6 |
| Last season per game | — | 11.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |