Geno SmithorKirk Cousins?
Week 5 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Kirk Cousins
Kirk Cousins outscores Geno Smith in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Geno Smith comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Kirk Cousins, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Kirk Cousins projects 1.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. The matchups don't separate them: Kirk Cousins faces the New England Patriots (12% fewer than average to QBs), Geno Smith faces the Cleveland Browns (9% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.9
- Median
- 11.2
- Ceiling
- 21.6
- Big game (25+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 12):
- 55%
- Floor
- 5.9
- Median
- 12.6
- Ceiling
- 22.8
- Big game (25+):
- 7%
- Dud (under 12):
- 46%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Geno SmithQB, NYJ, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Kirk CousinsQB, LV, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.4 | 13.7 |
| PPR projection | 12.4 | 13.7 |
| Standard projection | 12.4 | 13.7 |
| Rank this week | QB22 | QB20 |
| Matchup | vs CLE | at NE |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 14.9 | 19.7 |
| Last season per game | 11.6 | 10.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |