Caleb WilliamsorKyler Murray?
Week 8 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Kyler Murray
Kyler Murray outscores Caleb Williams in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Caleb Williams comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Kyler Murray, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Kyler Murray projects 0.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 8. Kyler Murray has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (29% more than average to QBs); Caleb Williams faces the Seattle Seahawks (25% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 8.1
- Median
- 15.6
- Ceiling
- 26.4
- Big game (25+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 12):
- 30%
- Floor
- 10.9
- Median
- 16.5
- Ceiling
- 23.6
- Big game (25+):
- 7%
- Dud (under 12):
- 16%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Caleb WilliamsQB, CHI, Mon, Nov 2, 8:15 p.m. ET | Kyler MurrayQB, MIN, Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 16.5 | 17.0 |
| PPR projection | 16.5 | 17.0 |
| Standard projection | 16.5 | 17.0 |
| Rank this week | QB11 | QB8 |
| Matchup | at SEA | at DET |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 20.9 | 10.7 |
| Last season per game | 18.7 | 15.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | 15 | — |