Kyler MurrayorTrevor Lawrence?
Week 8 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence outscores Kyler Murray in 60% of simulations.
Kyler Murray still comes out ahead in the other 40%, so Trevor Lawrence is the better bet, not a sure thing. Trevor Lawrence projects 3.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 8. Kyler Murray has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (29% more than average to QBs); Trevor Lawrence faces the Indianapolis Colts (5% more than average to QBs). Trevor Lawrence still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 10.9
- Median
- 16.5
- Ceiling
- 23.6
- Big game (25+):
- 7%
- Dud (under 12):
- 16%
- Floor
- 10.1
- Median
- 19.0
- Ceiling
- 31.7
- Big game (25+):
- 25%
- Dud (under 12):
- 17%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Kyler MurrayQB, MIN, Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 p.m. ET | Trevor LawrenceQB, JAX, Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 17.0 | 20.4 |
| PPR projection | 17.0 | 20.4 |
| Standard projection | 17.0 | 20.4 |
| Rank this week | QB8 | QB4 |
| Matchup | at DET | vs IND |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.7 | 19.0 |
| Last season per game | 15.6 | 19.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | 19 |