Jayden DanielsorTrevor Lawrence?
Week 5 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Jayden Daniels
Jayden Daniels outscores Trevor Lawrence in 50% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Trevor Lawrence comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean Jayden Daniels, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Trevor Lawrence projects 0.7 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Jayden Daniels has the better matchup against the New York Giants (5% more than average to QBs); Trevor Lawrence faces the Philadelphia Eagles (5% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 9.3
- Median
- 15.9
- Ceiling
- 25.2
- Big game (25+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 12):
- 24%
- Floor
- 8.5
- Median
- 16.3
- Ceiling
- 27.4
- Big game (25+):
- 16%
- Dud (under 12):
- 26%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jayden DanielsQB, WAS, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Trevor LawrenceQB, JAX, Sun, Oct 11, 9:30 a.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 16.8 | 17.5 |
| PPR projection | 16.8 | 17.5 |
| Standard projection | 16.8 | 17.5 |
| Rank this week | QB14 | QB11 |
| Matchup | vs NYG | vs PHI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 16.2 | 16.3 |
| Last season per game | 16.3 | 19.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 55% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | 6 |