Josh AllenorTrevor Lawrence?
Week 10 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Josh Allen
Josh Allen outscores Trevor Lawrence in 61% of simulations.
Trevor Lawrence still comes out ahead in the other 39%, so Josh Allen is the better bet, not a sure thing. Josh Allen projects 4.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. The matchups don't separate them: Josh Allen faces the New York Jets (15% more than average to QBs), Trevor Lawrence faces the Tennessee Titans (14% more than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 12.5
- Median
- 23.2
- Ceiling
- 38.7
- Big game (25+):
- 42%
- Dud (under 12):
- 9%
- Floor
- 10.3
- Median
- 19.3
- Ceiling
- 31.8
- Big game (25+):
- 26%
- Dud (under 12):
- 16%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Josh AllenQB, BUF, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Trevor LawrenceQB, JAX, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 24.9 | 20.6 |
| PPR projection | 24.9 | 20.6 |
| Standard projection | 24.9 | 20.6 |
| Rank this week | QB1 | QB5 |
| Matchup | at NYJ | at TEN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 25.0 | 18.4 |
| Last season per game | 22.8 | 19.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 96% | 100% |
| Trade value | 53 | 19 |