Drake MayeorJosh Allen?
Week 6 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Josh Allen
Josh Allen outscores Drake Maye in 63% of simulations.
Drake Maye still comes out ahead in the other 37%, so Josh Allen is the better bet, not a sure thing. Josh Allen projects 5.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 6. The matchups don't separate them: Josh Allen faces the Las Vegas Raiders (8% more than average to QBs), Drake Maye faces the New York Jets (5% more than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 10.9
- Median
- 19.9
- Ceiling
- 32.8
- Big game (25+):
- 29%
- Dud (under 12):
- 14%
- Floor
- 13.5
- Median
- 24.6
- Ceiling
- 40.7
- Big game (25+):
- 48%
- Dud (under 12):
- 7%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Drake MayeQB, NE, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET | Josh AllenQB, BUF, Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 21.0 | 26.4 |
| PPR projection | 21.1 | 26.5 |
| Standard projection | 21.0 | 26.4 |
| Rank this week | QB4 | QB1 |
| Matchup | vs NYJ | at LV |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 17.5 | 28.5 |
| Last season per game | 20.7 | 22.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | 21 | 53 |