Brock PurdyorPatrick Mahomes?
Week 9 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes outscores Brock Purdy in 50% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Brock Purdy comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean Patrick Mahomes, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Brock Purdy projects 0.3 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. The matchups don't separate them: Patrick Mahomes faces the New York Jets (16% more than average to QBs), Brock Purdy faces the Las Vegas Raiders (9% more than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 10.3
- Median
- 19.3
- Ceiling
- 32.4
- Big game (25+):
- 28%
- Dud (under 12):
- 16%
- Floor
- 10.7
- Median
- 19.2
- Ceiling
- 31.5
- Big game (25+):
- 25%
- Dud (under 12):
- 15%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Brock PurdyQB, SF, Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 p.m. ET | Patrick MahomesQB, KC, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 20.5 | 20.2 |
| PPR projection | 20.5 | 20.2 |
| Standard projection | 20.5 | 20.2 |
| Rank this week | QB2 | QB4 |
| Matchup | vs LV | vs NYJ |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 20.9 | 17.9 |
| Last season per game | 19.7 | 20.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | 17 | 9 |