Matthew StaffordorPatrick Mahomes?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes outscores Matthew Stafford in 58% of simulations.
Matthew Stafford still comes out ahead in the other 42%, so Patrick Mahomes is the better bet, not a sure thing. Patrick Mahomes projects 2.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Patrick Mahomes faces the Las Vegas Raiders (3% fewer than average to QBs), Matthew Stafford faces the Philadelphia Eagles (7% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 10.2
- Median
- 17.7
- Ceiling
- 28.2
- Big game (25+):
- 18%
- Dud (under 12):
- 17%
- Floor
- 11.4
- Median
- 19.8
- Ceiling
- 31.6
- Big game (25+):
- 27%
- Dud (under 12):
- 12%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Matthew StaffordQB, LAR, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Patrick MahomesQB, KC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 18.7 | 20.7 |
| PPR projection | 18.7 | 20.7 |
| Standard projection | 18.7 | 20.7 |
| Rank this week | QB6 | QB3 |
| Matchup | at PHI | at LV |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 17.3 | 22.2 |
| Last season per game | 20.6 | 20.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | 13 | 24 |