C.J. StroudorTrevor Lawrence?
Week 10 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence outscores C.J. Stroud in 60% of simulations.
C.J. Stroud still comes out ahead in the other 40%, so Trevor Lawrence is the better bet, not a sure thing. Trevor Lawrence projects 3.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Trevor Lawrence has the better matchup against the Tennessee Titans (14% more than average to QBs); C.J. Stroud faces the Cleveland Browns (16% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 9.4
- Median
- 16.4
- Ceiling
- 26.8
- Big game (25+):
- 14%
- Dud (under 12):
- 23%
- Floor
- 10.3
- Median
- 19.3
- Ceiling
- 31.8
- Big game (25+):
- 26%
- Dud (under 12):
- 16%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | C.J. StroudQB, HOU, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Trevor LawrenceQB, JAX, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 17.6 | 20.6 |
| PPR projection | 17.6 | 20.6 |
| Standard projection | 17.6 | 20.6 |
| Rank this week | QB10 | QB5 |
| Matchup | at CLE | at TEN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 20.5 | 18.4 |
| Last season per game | 14.9 | 19.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 89% | 100% |
| Trade value | 22 | 19 |