Drake MayeorTrevor Lawrence?
Week 10 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Drake Maye
Drake Maye outscores Trevor Lawrence in 62% of simulations.
Trevor Lawrence still comes out ahead in the other 38%, so Drake Maye is the better bet, not a sure thing. Drake Maye projects 3.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Drake Maye has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (23% more than average to QBs); Trevor Lawrence faces the Tennessee Titans (14% more than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 13.2
- Median
- 23.0
- Ceiling
- 37.3
- Big game (25+):
- 42%
- Dud (under 12):
- 7%
- Floor
- 10.5
- Median
- 19.4
- Ceiling
- 31.9
- Big game (25+):
- 26%
- Dud (under 12):
- 16%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | Drake MayeQB, NE, Sun, Nov 15, 9:30 a.m. ET | Trevor LawrenceQB, JAX, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 24.2 | 20.6 |
| PPR projection | 24.2 | 20.6 |
| Standard projection | 24.2 | 20.6 |
| Rank this week | QB1 | QB4 |
| Matchup | at DET | at TEN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 19.9 | 18.4 |
| Last season per game | 20.7 | 19.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 81% | 100% |
| Trade value | 34 | 19 |