Aaron RodgersorDrake Maye?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Drake Maye
Drake Maye outscores Aaron Rodgers in 56% of simulations.
Aaron Rodgers still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Drake Maye is the better bet, not a sure thing. Drake Maye projects 0.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Drake Maye faces the Buffalo Bills (10% fewer than average to QBs), Aaron Rodgers faces the Cleveland Browns (13% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 6.1
- Median
- 11.9
- Ceiling
- 20.4
- Big game (25+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 12):
- 50%
- Floor
- 8.2
- Median
- 13.0
- Ceiling
- 19.2
- Big game (25+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 12):
- 40%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Aaron RodgersQB, PIT, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 p.m. ET | Drake MayeQB, NE, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.8 | 13.4 |
| PPR projection | 12.8 | 13.4 |
| Standard projection | 12.8 | 13.4 |
| Rank this week | QB23 | QB20 |
| Matchup | at CLE | at BUF |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 13.1 | 7.2 |
| Last season per game | 14.2 | 20.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 81% |
| Trade value | — | — |