Brock PurdyorDrake Maye?
Week 6 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Brock Purdy
Brock Purdy outscores Drake Maye in 59% of simulations.
Drake Maye still comes out ahead in the other 41%, so Brock Purdy is the better bet, not a sure thing. Brock Purdy projects 3.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 6. Brock Purdy has the better matchup against the Washington Commanders (27% more than average to QBs); Drake Maye faces the New York Jets (6% more than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 12.5
- Median
- 23.1
- Ceiling
- 38.3
- Big game (25+):
- 43%
- Dud (under 12):
- 9%
- Floor
- 10.9
- Median
- 20.0
- Ceiling
- 32.9
- Big game (25+):
- 29%
- Dud (under 12):
- 13%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Brock PurdyQB, SF, Mon, Oct 19, 8:15 p.m. ET | Drake MayeQB, NE, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 24.4 | 21.1 |
| PPR projection | 24.4 | 21.1 |
| Standard projection | 24.4 | 21.1 |
| Rank this week | QB1 | QB2 |
| Matchup | vs WAS | vs NYJ |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 23.3 | 17.5 |
| Last season per game | 19.7 | 20.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | 27 | 22 |