Cam WardorSam Darnold?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Sam Darnold
Sam Darnold outscores Cam Ward in 58% of simulations.
Cam Ward still comes out ahead in the other 42%, so Sam Darnold is the better bet, not a sure thing. Sam Darnold projects 2.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Cam Ward has the better matchup against the Baltimore Ravens (5% more than average to QBs); Sam Darnold faces the Los Angeles Chargers (16% fewer than average to QBs). Sam Darnold still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 6.1
- Median
- 11.6
- Ceiling
- 20.1
- Big game (25+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 12):
- 54%
- Floor
- 6.4
- Median
- 13.2
- Ceiling
- 24.2
- Big game (25+):
- 8%
- Dud (under 12):
- 43%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Cam WardQB, TEN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Sam DarnoldQB, SEA, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.3 | 14.5 |
| PPR projection | 12.3 | 14.5 |
| Standard projection | 12.3 | 14.5 |
| Rank this week | QB24 | QB21 |
| Matchup | at BAL | vs LAC |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 13.7 | 14.1 |
| Last season per game | 11.0 | 13.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |