Bo NixorSam Darnold?
Week 5 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Bo Nix
Bo Nix outscores Sam Darnold in 50% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Sam Darnold comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean Bo Nix, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Sam Darnold projects 0.2 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Sam Darnold has the better matchup against the San Francisco 49ers (2% fewer than average to QBs); Bo Nix faces the Los Angeles Chargers (15% fewer than average to QBs). Bo Nix still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.2
- Median
- 14.1
- Ceiling
- 24.2
- Big game (25+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 12):
- 37%
- Floor
- 6.6
- Median
- 13.9
- Ceiling
- 25.7
- Big game (25+):
- 11%
- Dud (under 12):
- 39%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | Bo NixQB, DEN, Sun, Oct 11, 4:05 p.m. ET | Sam DarnoldQB, SEA, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 15.1 | 15.3 |
| PPR projection | 15.1 | 15.3 |
| Standard projection | 15.1 | 15.3 |
| Rank this week | QB17 | QB16 |
| Matchup | at LAC | vs SF |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 14.3 | 13.8 |
| Last season per game | 17.9 | 13.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 98% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |