Caleb WilliamsorSam Darnold?
Week 5 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Caleb Williams
Caleb Williams outscores Sam Darnold in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Sam Darnold comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Caleb Williams, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Caleb Williams projects 1.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Sam Darnold has the better matchup against the San Francisco 49ers (1% fewer than average to QBs); Caleb Williams faces the Green Bay Packers (9% fewer than average to QBs). Caleb Williams still wins more often despite that. Caleb Williams is listed as questionable.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.0
- Median
- 15.8
- Ceiling
- 28.9
- Big game (25+):
- 18%
- Dud (under 12):
- 33%
- Floor
- 6.6
- Median
- 13.9
- Ceiling
- 25.8
- Big game (25+):
- 12%
- Dud (under 12):
- 39%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Caleb WilliamsQB, CHI, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Sam DarnoldQB, SEA, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 16.5 | 15.4 |
| PPR projection | 16.6 | 15.4 |
| Standard projection | 16.5 | 15.4 |
| Rank this week | QB13 | QB16 |
| Matchup | at GB | vs SF |
| Injury | Questionable | None |
| 2026 points per game | 22.5 | 13.8 |
| Last season per game | 18.7 | 13.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 86% | 100% |
| Trade value | 17 | — |