Caleb WilliamsorJoe Burrow?
Week 5 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Joe Burrow
Joe Burrow outscores Caleb Williams in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Caleb Williams comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Joe Burrow, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Joe Burrow projects 0.7 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Joe Burrow has the better matchup against the Miami Dolphins (9% more than average to QBs); Caleb Williams faces the Green Bay Packers (9% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 8.8
- Median
- 17.3
- Ceiling
- 29.8
- Big game (25+):
- 20%
- Dud (under 12):
- 24%
- Floor
- 9.7
- Median
- 17.9
- Ceiling
- 29.1
- Big game (25+):
- 20%
- Dud (under 12):
- 20%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Caleb WilliamsQB, CHI, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Joe BurrowQB, CIN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 18.4 | 19.1 |
| PPR projection | 18.4 | 19.1 |
| Standard projection | 18.3 | 19.1 |
| Rank this week | QB6 | QB5 |
| Matchup | at GB | at MIA |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 22.5 | 19.2 |
| Last season per game | 18.7 | 16.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 86% | 100% |
| Trade value | 17 | 7 |