Dak PrescottorJoe Burrow?
Week 5 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Dak Prescott
Dak Prescott outscores Joe Burrow in 56% of simulations.
Joe Burrow still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Dak Prescott is the better bet, not a sure thing. Dak Prescott projects 1.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. The matchups don't separate them: Dak Prescott faces the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8% more than average to QBs), Joe Burrow faces the Miami Dolphins (9% more than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 10.5
- Median
- 19.2
- Ceiling
- 31.7
- Big game (25+):
- 26%
- Dud (under 12):
- 15%
- Floor
- 9.7
- Median
- 17.9
- Ceiling
- 29.1
- Big game (25+):
- 20%
- Dud (under 12):
- 20%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Dak PrescottQB, DAL, Thu, Oct 8, 8:15 p.m. ET | Joe BurrowQB, CIN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 20.2 | 19.1 |
| PPR projection | 20.2 | 19.1 |
| Standard projection | 20.2 | 19.1 |
| Rank this week | QB3 | QB5 |
| Matchup | vs TB | at MIA |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 20.3 | 19.2 |
| Last season per game | 18.5 | 16.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | 16 | 8 |