Josh AllenorPatrick Mahomes?
Week 9 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Josh Allen
Josh Allen outscores Patrick Mahomes in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Patrick Mahomes comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Josh Allen, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Josh Allen projects 0.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. Patrick Mahomes has the better matchup against the New York Jets (16% more than average to QBs); Josh Allen faces the Minnesota Vikings (41% fewer than average to QBs). Josh Allen still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 10.7
- Median
- 19.4
- Ceiling
- 31.9
- Big game (25+):
- 27%
- Dud (under 12):
- 14%
- Floor
- 10.7
- Median
- 19.2
- Ceiling
- 31.5
- Big game (25+):
- 25%
- Dud (under 12):
- 15%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Josh AllenQB, BUF, Mon, Nov 9, 8:15 p.m. ET | Patrick MahomesQB, KC, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 20.8 | 20.2 |
| PPR projection | 20.8 | 20.2 |
| Standard projection | 20.8 | 20.2 |
| Rank this week | QB1 | QB4 |
| Matchup | at MIN | vs NYJ |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 26.8 | 17.9 |
| Last season per game | 22.8 | 20.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 95% | 100% |
| Trade value | 56 | 9 |