Josh AllenorMatthew Stafford?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Josh Allen
Josh Allen outscores Matthew Stafford in 60% of simulations.
Matthew Stafford still comes out ahead in the other 40%, so Josh Allen is the better bet, not a sure thing. Josh Allen projects 3.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Matthew Stafford has the better matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles (2% fewer than average to QBs); Josh Allen faces the New England Patriots (15% fewer than average to QBs). Josh Allen still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 11.6
- Median
- 21.6
- Ceiling
- 36.2
- Big game (25+):
- 36%
- Dud (under 12):
- 11%
- Floor
- 10.6
- Median
- 18.4
- Ceiling
- 29.3
- Big game (25+):
- 20%
- Dud (under 12):
- 16%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | Josh AllenQB, BUF, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Matthew StaffordQB, LAR, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 23.2 | 19.4 |
| PPR projection | 23.3 | 19.4 |
| Standard projection | 23.2 | 19.4 |
| Rank this week | QB1 | QB5 |
| Matchup | vs NE | at PHI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 31.2 | 17.3 |
| Last season per game | 22.8 | 20.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | 59 | 17 |