Matthew StaffordorTrevor Lawrence?
Week 10 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence outscores Matthew Stafford in 57% of simulations.
Matthew Stafford still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so Trevor Lawrence is the better bet, not a sure thing. Trevor Lawrence projects 1.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. The matchups don't separate them: Trevor Lawrence faces the Tennessee Titans (14% more than average to QBs), Matthew Stafford faces the Arizona Cardinals (16% more than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 10.2
- Median
- 17.8
- Ceiling
- 28.4
- Big game (25+):
- 18%
- Dud (under 12):
- 17%
- Floor
- 10.5
- Median
- 19.4
- Ceiling
- 31.9
- Big game (25+):
- 26%
- Dud (under 12):
- 16%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Matthew StaffordQB, LAR, Sun, Nov 15, 4:05 p.m. ET | Trevor LawrenceQB, JAX, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 18.8 | 20.6 |
| PPR projection | 18.8 | 20.6 |
| Standard projection | 18.8 | 20.6 |
| Rank this week | QB6 | QB4 |
| Matchup | at ARI | at TEN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 15.9 | 18.4 |
| Last season per game | 20.6 | 19.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | 3 | 19 |