Patrick MahomesorTrevor Lawrence?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes outscores Trevor Lawrence in 57% of simulations.
Trevor Lawrence still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so Patrick Mahomes is the better bet, not a sure thing. Patrick Mahomes projects 1.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Trevor Lawrence has the better matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals (9% more than average to QBs); Patrick Mahomes faces the Las Vegas Raiders (3% fewer than average to QBs). Patrick Mahomes still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 11.4
- Median
- 19.8
- Ceiling
- 31.6
- Big game (25+):
- 27%
- Dud (under 12):
- 12%
- Floor
- 9.4
- Median
- 18.2
- Ceiling
- 30.8
- Big game (25+):
- 23%
- Dud (under 12):
- 20%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Patrick MahomesQB, KC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | Trevor LawrenceQB, JAX, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 20.7 | 19.6 |
| PPR projection | 20.7 | 19.6 |
| Standard projection | 20.7 | 19.6 |
| Rank this week | QB3 | QB5 |
| Matchup | at LV | at CIN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 22.2 | 17.4 |
| Last season per game | 20.4 | 19.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 95% |
| Trade value | 24 | 7 |