Patrick MahomesorTrevor Lawrence?
Week 10 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence outscores Patrick Mahomes in 55% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Patrick Mahomes comes out ahead in the other 45%. Lean Trevor Lawrence, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Trevor Lawrence projects 2.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Trevor Lawrence has the better matchup against the Tennessee Titans (14% more than average to QBs); Patrick Mahomes faces the Atlanta Falcons (2% more than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 10.0
- Median
- 17.7
- Ceiling
- 28.9
- Big game (25+):
- 18%
- Dud (under 12):
- 19%
- Floor
- 10.3
- Median
- 19.3
- Ceiling
- 31.8
- Big game (25+):
- 26%
- Dud (under 12):
- 16%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Patrick MahomesQB, KC, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Trevor LawrenceQB, JAX, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 18.6 | 20.6 |
| PPR projection | 18.6 | 20.6 |
| Standard projection | 18.6 | 20.6 |
| Rank this week | QB8 | QB5 |
| Matchup | at ATL | at TEN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 17.8 | 18.4 |
| Last season per game | 20.4 | 19.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 94% | 100% |
| Trade value | 13 | 19 |