Joe BurroworPatrick Mahomes?
Week 8 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Joe Burrow
Joe Burrow outscores Patrick Mahomes in 66% of simulations.
Patrick Mahomes still comes out ahead in the other 34%, so Joe Burrow is the better bet, not a sure thing. Joe Burrow projects 5.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 8. Joe Burrow has the better matchup against the Tennessee Titans (5% more than average to QBs); Patrick Mahomes faces the Denver Broncos (11% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 11.2
- Median
- 19.9
- Ceiling
- 31.6
- Big game (25+):
- 27%
- Dud (under 12):
- 13%
- Floor
- 8.4
- Median
- 15.1
- Ceiling
- 25.1
- Big game (25+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 12):
- 30%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Joe BurrowQB, CIN, Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 p.m. ET | Patrick MahomesQB, KC, Sun, Nov 1, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 21.1 | 16.0 |
| PPR projection | 21.1 | 16.0 |
| Standard projection | 21.1 | 16.0 |
| Rank this week | QB3 | QB15 |
| Matchup | vs TEN | at DEN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 21.7 | 16.7 |
| Last season per game | 16.8 | 20.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 94% | 100% |
| Trade value | 25 | — |