Drake MayeorMichael Penix Jr.?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Drake Maye
Drake Maye outscores Michael Penix Jr. in 63% of simulations.
Michael Penix Jr. still comes out ahead in the other 37%, so Drake Maye is the better bet, not a sure thing. Drake Maye projects 2.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Drake Maye faces the Buffalo Bills (11% fewer than average to QBs), Michael Penix Jr. faces the New Orleans Saints (9% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 9.1
- Median
- 14.2
- Ceiling
- 21.1
- Big game (25+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 12):
- 30%
- Floor
- 5.8
- Median
- 11.7
- Ceiling
- 20.7
- Big game (25+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 12):
- 52%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Drake MayeQB, NE, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Michael Penix Jr.QB, ATL, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 14.7 | 12.7 |
| PPR projection | 14.7 | 12.7 |
| Standard projection | 14.6 | 12.7 |
| Rank this week | QB19 | QB23 |
| Matchup | at BUF | at NO |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 7.2 | 14.0 |
| Last season per game | 20.7 | 13.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 81% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |