Drake MayeorKyler Murray?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Kyler Murray
Kyler Murray outscores Drake Maye in 55% of simulations.
Drake Maye still comes out ahead in the other 45%, so Kyler Murray is the better bet, not a sure thing. Kyler Murray projects 1.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Kyler Murray has the better matchup against the Miami Dolphins (12% more than average to QBs); Drake Maye faces the Buffalo Bills (10% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 9.1
- Median
- 14.2
- Ceiling
- 21.1
- Big game (25+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 12):
- 30%
- Floor
- 10.1
- Median
- 15.3
- Ceiling
- 21.9
- Big game (25+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 12):
- 22%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Drake MayeQB, NE, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Kyler MurrayQB, MIN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 14.7 | 15.8 |
| PPR projection | 14.7 | 15.8 |
| Standard projection | 14.7 | 15.8 |
| Rank this week | QB20 | QB19 |
| Matchup | at BUF | vs MIA |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 7.2 | 5.0 |
| Last season per game | 20.7 | 15.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 81% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |