Baker MayfieldorDrake Maye?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Drake Maye
Drake Maye outscores Baker Mayfield in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Baker Mayfield comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Drake Maye, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Both project 13.4 half-PPR points in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Drake Maye faces the Buffalo Bills (10% fewer than average to QBs), Baker Mayfield faces the Green Bay Packers (7% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.4
- Median
- 12.6
- Ceiling
- 20.6
- Big game (25+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 12):
- 44%
- Floor
- 8.2
- Median
- 13.0
- Ceiling
- 19.2
- Big game (25+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 12):
- 40%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Baker MayfieldQB, TB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Drake MayeQB, NE, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 13.4 | 13.4 |
| PPR projection | 13.4 | 13.4 |
| Standard projection | 13.4 | 13.4 |
| Rank this week | QB19 | QB20 |
| Matchup | vs GB | at BUF |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.7 | 7.2 |
| Last season per game | 16.0 | 20.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 94% | 81% |
| Trade value | — | — |