Baker MayfieldorBryce Young?
Week 8 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Baker Mayfield
Baker Mayfield outscores Bryce Young in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Bryce Young comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Baker Mayfield, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Bryce Young projects 0.9 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Baker Mayfield has the better matchup against the Atlanta Falcons (2% more than average to QBs); Bryce Young faces the Green Bay Packers (15% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.4
- Median
- 12.8
- Ceiling
- 21.0
- Big game (25+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 12):
- 43%
- Floor
- 6.3
- Median
- 13.2
- Ceiling
- 24.4
- Big game (25+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 12):
- 42%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Baker MayfieldQB, TB, Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 p.m. ET | Bryce YoungQB, CAR, Thu, Oct 29, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 13.6 | 14.5 |
| PPR projection | 13.6 | 14.5 |
| Standard projection | 13.6 | 14.5 |
| Rank this week | QB21 | QB18 |
| Matchup | vs ATL | at GB |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.4 | 19.3 |
| Last season per game | 16.0 | 13.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 90% | 77% |
| Trade value | — | — |