Baker MayfieldorBo Nix?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Bo Nix
Bo Nix outscores Baker Mayfield in 62% of simulations.
Baker Mayfield still comes out ahead in the other 38%, so Bo Nix is the better bet, not a sure thing. Bo Nix projects 3.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Bo Nix faces the San Francisco 49ers (1% fewer than average to QBs), Baker Mayfield faces the Green Bay Packers (7% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.4
- Median
- 12.6
- Ceiling
- 20.6
- Big game (25+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 12):
- 44%
- Floor
- 7.9
- Median
- 15.6
- Ceiling
- 27.4
- Big game (25+):
- 14%
- Dud (under 12):
- 30%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Baker MayfieldQB, TB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Bo NixQB, DEN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 13.4 | 16.8 |
| PPR projection | 13.4 | 16.8 |
| Standard projection | 13.4 | 16.8 |
| Rank this week | QB19 | QB15 |
| Matchup | vs GB | at SF |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.7 | 14.5 |
| Last season per game | 16.0 | 17.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 94% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |