Aaron RodgersorBo Nix?
Week 5 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers outscores Bo Nix in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Bo Nix comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Aaron Rodgers, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Aaron Rodgers projects 0.9 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Aaron Rodgers has the better matchup against the Indianapolis Colts (10% more than average to QBs); Bo Nix faces the Los Angeles Chargers (15% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.8
- Median
- 15.0
- Ceiling
- 25.4
- Big game (25+):
- 11%
- Dud (under 12):
- 32%
- Floor
- 7.2
- Median
- 14.1
- Ceiling
- 24.2
- Big game (25+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 12):
- 37%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Aaron RodgersQB, PIT, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Bo NixQB, DEN, Sun, Oct 11, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 16.0 | 15.1 |
| PPR projection | 16.0 | 15.1 |
| Standard projection | 16.0 | 15.1 |
| Rank this week | QB15 | QB17 |
| Matchup | vs IND | at LAC |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 15.3 | 14.3 |
| Last season per game | 14.2 | 17.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 98% |
| Trade value | — | — |