Bo NixorC.J. Stroud?

Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.

Our call

Lean C.J. Stroud

C.J. Stroud outscores Bo Nix in 53% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: Bo Nix comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean C.J. Stroud, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. C.J. Stroud projects 0.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. C.J. Stroud has the better matchup against the Dallas Cowboys (41% more than average to QBs); Bo Nix faces the San Francisco 49ers (1% fewer than average to QBs).

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Bo Nix
Floor
7.9
Median
15.6
Ceiling
27.4
Big game (25+):
14%
Dud (under 12):
30%
C.J. Stroud
Floor
9.1
Median
16.2
Ceiling
26.4
Big game (25+):
13%
Dud (under 12):
25%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatBo NixQB, DEN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ETC.J. StroudQB, HOU, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection16.817.1
PPR projection16.817.1
Standard projection16.817.1
Rank this weekQB15QB14
Matchupat SFvs DAL
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game14.515.1
Last season per game17.914.9
Snap share, last game100%100%
Trade value——