Aaron RodgersorTrevor Lawrence?
Week 6 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers outscores Trevor Lawrence in 50% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Trevor Lawrence comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean Aaron Rodgers, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Trevor Lawrence projects 0.5 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Aaron Rodgers has the better matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6% more than average to QBs); Trevor Lawrence faces the Houston Texans (14% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 8.3
- Median
- 15.6
- Ceiling
- 26.1
- Big game (25+):
- 12%
- Dud (under 12):
- 29%
- Floor
- 8.4
- Median
- 15.9
- Ceiling
- 26.6
- Big game (25+):
- 14%
- Dud (under 12):
- 27%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Aaron RodgersQB, PIT, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET | Trevor LawrenceQB, JAX, Sun, Oct 18, 9:30 a.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 16.6 | 17.1 |
| PPR projection | 16.6 | 17.1 |
| Standard projection | 16.6 | 17.1 |
| Rank this week | QB9 | QB6 |
| Matchup | at TB | vs HOU |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 16.6 | 17.4 |
| Last season per game | 14.2 | 19.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 97% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | 10 |